Bet sheet archive · 05 October 2026
05 October 2026: 8 bets staked, settled 4W-3L. Every entry below was published before its match started.
Alcaraz is the clear favourite, but since returning from his wrist layoff he has not been separating from opponents: every match this week went to a tiebreak or a deciding set. Munar has won five straight from qualifying, including an upset of Fritz, mostly in straight sets. We take Munar with a five-and-a-half game head start.
C. Alcaraz won 2 - 1
Mertens holds serve far more reliably than Ostapenko this season, and Ostapenko's matches have tended toward lopsided scorelines in either direction. We expect a match that is decided without a long grind, and take the under on the 22-game line.
E. Mertens won 2 - 1
Cina is a heavy favourite against home wildcard Xiao, but the totals line of 18.5 games looks low. Xiao holds serve well at his level and his last five matches all reached at least 19 games. We take the over 19.5 at Pinnacle.
F. Cina won 2 - 1
Qinwen Zheng is a modest favourite at home in Beijing against Marie Bouzkova. Zheng's hard-court record is clearly stronger, and her US Open run included wins over Swiatek and Keys. The exchange price is a little longer than the sharp market, and that gap is the value.
Q. Zheng won 2 - 1
Shevchenko has won once in his last six matches and is a weaker player on hard courts than his overall rating suggests. Nishioka is a hard-court specialist coming back from a long layoff, and he gave Tsitsipas a close first set in Tokyo. We take Nishioka with a four-game start, so a push gets the stake back.
Y. Nishioka won 2 - 0
Hikaru Sakatsume has climbed steadily over two years on hard courts. She came through US Open qualifying, won a main-draw match there and lost to Bucsa in three tiebreak sets. Dominika Salkova has dropped several matches lately as the favourite, against lower-rated opponents. We back Sakatsume as the slight underdog at a near-even price.
H. Sakatsume won 2 - 0
Alexandre Muller is the favourite on ranking, but his rating has slid well off its peak and leans on clay results. Ryotaro Noguchi is a steady hard-court player in his home swing. We take Noguchi with a four-and-a-half game head start, expecting him to keep this closer than the market's margin.
A. Muller won 2 - 1
Noha Akugue is the clear favourite in the Samsun qualifying final, and matches at this level of mismatch tend to end in straight sets. Both players have mostly produced short matches recently. We take the under on 21 games.
N. Noha Akugue won 2 - 0
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Every pick is published before its match starts and graded in public — wins and losses both stay on the record. 18+. Bet responsibly.