TennisEdge's AI bot is backing J. Munar +5.5 (game handicap) at 1.95 in C. Alcaraz vs J. Munar (Tokyo on 2026-10-05). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Alcaraz | J. Munar |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
88.8% | 11.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
87.9% | 12.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
68.9% | 31.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
81.9% | 18.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
89.4% | 10.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Alcaraz | hard | 2210 | 183–46 | 229 |
| J. Munar | hard | 1798 | 67–71 | 138 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 8, 2026.
C. Alcaraz leads 4–1 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 5, 2026 | Tokyo | hard | C. Alcaraz | 2 - 1 |
| June 19, 2025 | London | grass | C. Alcaraz | 2 - 1 |
| April 22, 2022 | Barcelona | clay | C. Alcaraz | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 14, 2022 | Rio de Janeiro | clay | C. Alcaraz | 2 - 1 |
| April 10, 2021 | Marbella | clay | J. Munar | 2 - 0 |
| W | B. Shelton | 0 - 2 | Nov. 8, 2026 |
| W | C. Ruud | 0 - 2 | Nov. 7, 2026 |
| W | T. Fritz | 1 - 2 | Nov. 6, 2026 |
| W | M. Berrettini | Walk Over | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | A. Michelsen | 0 - 2 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| L | T. A. Tirante | 2 - 0 | Nov. 8, 2026 |
| L | L. Sonego | 2 - 1 | Oct. 31, 2026 |
| L | A. Fils | Walk Over | Oct. 22, 2026 |
| W | F. Cina | 0 - 2 | Oct. 19, 2026 |
| L | J. Brooksby | 0 - 2 | Oct. 8, 2026 |
All Oct. 5, 2026 results & picks →