L. Xiao vs F. Cina — Prediction & Analysis

Shanghai · ATP Shanghai - Semi-finals · Oct. 5, 2026 · 04:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing Over 19.5 games at 2.41 in L. Xiao vs F. Cina (Shanghai on 2026-10-05). Result: WON.

Surface hard Odds L. Xiao 9.10 · F. Cina 1.02

Bot bet

Over 19.5 games @ 2.41 · 1.5u
Result: WON
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: L. Xiao · F. Cina · head-to-head record · Shanghai

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method L. Xiao F. Cina
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
8.9% 91.1%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
8.9% 91.1%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
61.4% 38.6%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
26.4% 73.6%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
10.1% 89.9%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
L. Xiao hard1259 68–86154
F. Cina hard1667 67–45112

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 12, 2026.

Head to head

F. Cina leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Oct. 5, 2026ShanghaihardF. Cina2 - 1

Recent form

L. Xiao

L R. Te 2 - 0 Nov. 12, 2026
W T. Karigyo 0 - 2 Nov. 10, 2026
L B. Zhang 2 - 1 Nov. 3, 2026
L J. Cui 0 - 2 Oct. 27, 2026
L B. Butulija 1 - 2 Oct. 23, 2026

F. Cina

L D. Prizmic 0 - 2 Oct. 30, 2026
W N. Budkov Kjaer 2 - 0 Oct. 28, 2026
W S. Mochizuki 1 - 2 Oct. 26, 2026
L J. Munar 0 - 2 Oct. 19, 2026
W R. Bertola 1 - 2 Oct. 18, 2026

All Oct. 5, 2026 results & picks →

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