Original tennis betting research from our 300,000-match database. Every finding is backed by data — and we publish the caveats too. No hunches, no "20 years of gut feel."
We tested the tennis fatigue myth on 209,000 ATP/WTA matches. Rest alone barely helps (52.9%), but winning a 3-setter yesterday costs ~4.5 points — the same on hard and clay.
Across 21,917 ATP/WTA matches, flat-backing heavy favourites lost 3.2% while backing longshots lost 34.8%. The bookmaker margin is loaded onto underdogs — and it worsens with every step up the price.
We graded every match our model declined. Flat-betting those 'passes' would have lost 13.6%. Passing isn't caution — it's where the edge is, and CLV proves it.