Original tennis betting research from our 300,000-match database. Every finding is backed by data — and we publish the caveats too. No hunches, no "20 years of gut feel."
Home players beat their rating by +2.0pp (ATP) and +1.0pp (WTA) on 52,521 matches. The market already prices about half of it. No edge claimed.
One in 28 matches ends in retirement. Base rates, age and surface gradients, and a 2.24x prior-retirement hazard, measured after fixing our detector. Twice.
Players really do underperform after winning a title, by 3.5pp on 64,669 transitions. The cause is ELO overshoot, not emotion: runners-up dip the same.
Layoff rust measured on 238,716 player-matches: returning players underperform ELO by 0.9pp after 8-14 days off, 9.8pp past a year, fading over 4-6 matches.
No marathon cliff: 218,890 player-matches show tennis fatigue is a smooth games gradient, an easy win is a +3.4pp bonus, and we correct our own -4.5pp rule.
Surface-split tennis ELO loses to the pooled rating on 62,744 matches, both tours. The best mix is 0.7 overall + 0.3 surface. Tables included.
Landing more first serves wins the match 55.9% of the time. Winning more first-serve points wins it 84.9%. 14,082 ATP and WTA matches.
The market's favorite wins 71.5% and its odds are near-perfectly calibrated. Our model doesn't beat the close. Why 80% accuracy claims prove nothing.
Our 'beat the close 72%' stat included the bookmaker vig. Against the vig-stripped exchange close our real CLV is negative. We publish it.
Lefties win 46.3% vs 46.8% implied. Across 802 players we found fewer mispriced outliers than chance predicts. Style is not a betting edge.
We tested the tennis fatigue myth on 209,000 matches. Rest alone barely helps (52.9%); a 3-setter yesterday costs ~4.5 points.
Across 21,917 matches, flat-backing heavy favourites lost 3.2% and longshots lost 34.8%. The bookmaker margin is loaded onto underdogs.
We graded every match our model declined. Flat-betting those 'passes' would have lost 13.6%. Passing is where the edge is, and CLV proves it.
The H2H leader wins 59% of rematches, but against the betting odds the angle adds nothing: 36.0% actual vs 36.7% implied.