TennisEdge's AI bot is backing R. Noguchi +4.5 (game handicap) at 1.74 in R. Noguchi vs A. Muller (Shanghai on 2026-10-05). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Noguchi | A. Muller |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
36.9% | 63.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
32.9% | 67.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
56.3% | 43.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
42.0% | 58.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
33.8% | 66.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Noguchi | hard | 1606 | 184–131 | 315 |
| A. Muller | hard | 1654 | 97–94 | 191 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 13, 2026.
A. Muller leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 5, 2026 | Shanghai | hard | A. Muller | 2 - 1 |
| W | T. Daniel | 2 - 0 | Nov. 13, 2026 |
| W | Y. Zhou | 2 - 0 | Nov. 12, 2026 |
| W | D. Michalski | 2 - 0 | Nov. 10, 2026 |
| L | A. Kachmazov | 2 - 0 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| L | K. Samrej | 2 - 1 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
All Oct. 5, 2026 results & picks →