TennisEdge's AI bot is backing Under 22.0 games at 1.93 in J. Ostapenko vs E. Mertens (Beijing on 2026-10-04). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Ostapenko | E. Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
36.8% | 63.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
42.0% | 58.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
27.2% | 72.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
35.3% | 64.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
42.4% | 57.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Ostapenko | hard | 1789 | 94–81 | 175 |
| E. Mertens | hard | 1848 | 130–87 | 217 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Oct. 20, 2026.
E. Mertens leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 5, 2026 | Beijing | hard | E. Mertens | 2 - 1 |
| L | B. Bencic | 0 - 1 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
| L | S. Kartal | 2 - 0 | Oct. 17, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 0 - 2 | Oct. 16, 2026 |
| W | L. Fernandez | 1 - 2 | Oct. 15, 2026 |
| W | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 | Oct. 14, 2026 |
| L | L. Fernandez | 2 - 0 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Uchijima | 0 - 2 | Oct. 26, 2026 |
| L | L. Fernandez | 1 - 2 | Oct. 19, 2026 |
| L | D. Snigur | 2 - 0 | Oct. 13, 2026 |
| L | Q. Zheng | 2 - 0 | Oct. 10, 2026 |
All Oct. 4, 2026 results & picks →