Bet sheet archive · 06 September 2026
06 September 2026: 5 bets staked, settled 0W-4L. Every entry below was published before its match started.
Rybakina is a heavy favourite here and the moneyline offers nothing at 1.10, so the value sits in the games handicap. Starodubtseva is a clay-court player on a poor hard-court run whose rating is flattered by her clay results, and she arrives having spent nearly three hours more on court this week. Against opponents of her level Rybakina has been winning by six and seven games, and the measured cover rates for a favourite this strong are better than the price on offer. We are backing Rybakina to win by six games or more.
E. Rybakina won 2 - 0
Sabalenka has won all three of her matches at this US Open in straight sets, by five, ten and six games, and arrives with a big edge on serve. Townsend is playing well and has the New York crowd behind her, but her return numbers this season are below the tour average, which makes it hard for her to break often enough to keep the scoreline tight. Our margin table says Sabalenka wins this by six or more games more often than the price at Pinnacle suggests. We are taking Sabalenka on the five-game handicap rather than the moneyline, where there is no value at 1.20.
A. Sabalenka won 2 - 0
Carlos Alcaraz is playing his first tournament back from a five-month wrist injury and reports through the week say his serve is still short of full speed. He has won three rounds comfortably enough, but his service holds against modest opposition have been merely average by his own standards rather than dominant. We think he wins this match, so there is no value backing Tommy Paul outright, but the six-game handicap looks too wide for a returning player facing an opponent who serves well and beat him twice on hard courts. Their most recent meeting at the Australian Open finished inside this margin.
C. Alcaraz won 3 - 0
Jessica Pegula is the deserved favourite here and we expect her to win, but the market is asking her to win by four clear games and that looks a game too many. She arrived in this round off a 26-game three-setter against Leylah Fernandez while Cirstea needed only 18 games to beat Jasmine Paolini in straight sets, and the pair's one meeting this season, in Cincinnati three weeks ago, went to 7-5 in the deciding set. Cirstea has dropped a set in three matches at this venue and is playing the sharpest tennis of her farewell season. We are taking Cirstea with a 3.5-game head start rather than backing the outright upset.
J. Pegula won 2 - 0
Tsitsipas has quietly been the better player of these two over the last three weeks, beating Fils and Lehecka here as a clear outsider in both, while Shelton has needed four sets and 35, 46 and 45 games to get past a run of solid but unremarkable opponents. Shelton also comes in on a single day's rest after a 45-game match, which is the heaviest turnaround our data measures, against Tsitsipas' two days off a shorter one. We make Tsitsipas around a 35% chance where the market offers roughly 30%, so we are taking him on the outright at 3.35. The handicap was the preferred route but the price never arrived.
B. Shelton won 3 - 0
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