TennisEdge's AI bot is backing E. Rybakina -5.5 (game handicap) at 1.85 in Y. Starodubtseva vs E. Rybakina (US Open on 2026-09-05). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Y. Starodubtseva | E. Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
10.3% | 89.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
17.1% | 82.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
63.4% | 36.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
27.2% | 72.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
17.7% | 82.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Starodubtseva | hard | 1641 | 73–60 | 133 |
| E. Rybakina | hard | 2152 | 198–75 | 273 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Oct. 24, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 6, 2026 | US Open | hard | E. Rybakina | 2 - 0 |
| May 27, 2026 | French Open | clay | Y. Starodubtseva | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Sasnovich | 0 - 2 | Oct. 24, 2026 |
| L | A. Zakharova | 0 - 2 | Oct. 17, 2026 |
| L | C. McNally | 2 - 1 | Oct. 12, 2026 |
| L | A. Charaeva | 1 - 2 | Oct. 1, 2026 |
| L | E. Rybakina | 0 - 2 | Sept. 6, 2026 |
| L | L. Fernandez | Walk Over | Oct. 30, 2026 |
| W | Y. Putintseva | 2 - 0 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Fernandez | 2 - 0 | Oct. 25, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | Oct. 24, 2026 |
| W | K. Kawa | 2 - 1 | Oct. 23, 2026 |
All Sept. 5, 2026 results & picks →