TennisEdge's AI bot is backing T. Paul +6.0 (game handicap) at 1.88 in T. Paul vs C. Alcaraz (US Open on 2026-09-06). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Paul | C. Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
19.4% | 80.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
23.7% | 76.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
20.3% | 79.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
19.4% | 80.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
19.9% | 80.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Paul | hard | 1921 | 161–84 | 245 |
| C. Alcaraz | hard | 2160 | 166–45 | 211 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 6, 2026.
C. Alcaraz leads 7–2 over 9 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 6, 2026 | US Open | hard | C. Alcaraz | 3 - 0 |
| Jan. 25, 2026 | Australian Open | hard | C. Alcaraz | 3 - 0 |
| June 3, 2025 | French Open | clay | C. Alcaraz | 3 - 0 |
| Aug. 1, 2024 | Olympic Games | clay | C. Alcaraz | 2 - 0 |
| July 9, 2024 | ATP Wimbledon | grass | C. Alcaraz | 3 - 1 |
| L | C. Alcaraz | 0 - 3 | Sept. 6, 2026 |
| W | A. Bublik | 2 - 3 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
| W | D. Prizmic | 1 - 3 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| W | C. Wong | 1 - 3 | Aug. 30, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 1 - 2 | Aug. 20, 2026 |
| L | B. Shelton | 3 - 2 | Sept. 9, 2026 |
| W | T. Paul | 0 - 3 | Sept. 6, 2026 |
| W | Y. Wu | 0 - 3 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Faria | 1 - 3 | Sept. 3, 2026 |
| W | R. Safiullin | 0 - 3 | Aug. 31, 2026 |
All Sept. 6, 2026 results & picks →