TennisEdge's AI bot is backing T. Paul +6.0 (game handicap) at 1.88 in T. Paul vs C. Alcaraz (US Open on 2026-09-06). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Paul | C. Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
19.4% | 80.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
23.7% | 76.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
20.3% | 79.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
19.4% | 80.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
19.9% | 80.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Paul | hard | 1944 | 169–88 | 257 |
| C. Alcaraz | hard | 2210 | 183–46 | 229 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 6, 2026.
C. Alcaraz leads 8–2 over 10 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 30, 2026 | Vienna | hard | C. Alcaraz | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 6, 2026 | US Open | hard | C. Alcaraz | 3 - 0 |
| Jan. 25, 2026 | Australian Open | hard | C. Alcaraz | 3 - 0 |
| June 3, 2025 | French Open | clay | C. Alcaraz | 3 - 0 |
| Aug. 1, 2024 | Olympic Games | clay | C. Alcaraz | 2 - 0 |
| L | B. Shelton | 2 - 1 | Nov. 6, 2026 |
| W | Q. Halys | 2 - 0 | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | D. Merida Aguilar | 2 - 0 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| W | H. Rune | 2 - 0 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | C. Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | Oct. 30, 2026 |
| W | B. Shelton | 0 - 2 | Nov. 8, 2026 |
| W | C. Ruud | 0 - 2 | Nov. 7, 2026 |
| W | T. Fritz | 1 - 2 | Nov. 6, 2026 |
| W | M. Berrettini | Walk Over | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | A. Michelsen | 0 - 2 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
All Sept. 6, 2026 results & picks →