TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Sabalenka -5.0 (game handicap) at 2.06 in A. Sabalenka vs T. Townsend (US Open on 2026-09-06). Result: PUSH.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Sabalenka | T. Townsend |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
82.3% | 17.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
85.3% | 14.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
90.4% | 9.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
84.5% | 15.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
80.4% | 19.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Sabalenka | hard | 2130 | 209–65 | 274 |
| T. Townsend | hard | 1875 | 85–52 | 137 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 11, 2026.
A. Sabalenka leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 6, 2026 | US Open | hard | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Andreeva | 0 - 2 | Nov. 11, 2026 |
| W | K. Muchova | 2 - 0 | Nov. 9, 2026 |
| L | A. Li | 1 - 2 | Oct. 14, 2026 |
| L | N. Bartunkova | 2 - 0 | Oct. 4, 2026 |
| W | R. Zarazua | 0 - 2 | Oct. 2, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | Walk Over | Sept. 16, 2026 |
| W | T. Maria | 1 - 2 | Sept. 14, 2026 |
| L | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | Sept. 6, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 2 - 1 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
| W | T. Preston | 2 - 0 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
All Sept. 6, 2026 results & picks →