TennisEdge's AI bot is backing S. Cirstea +3.5 (game handicap) at 2.26 in J. Pegula vs S. Cirstea (US Open on 2026-09-06). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Pegula | S. Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
67.8% | 32.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
62.5% | 37.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
55.6% | 44.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
64.7% | 35.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
71.9% | 28.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Pegula | hard | 2074 | 206–79 | 285 |
| S. Cirstea | hard | 1867 | 102–70 | 172 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 12, 2026.
J. Pegula leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 6, 2026 | US Open | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 19, 2026 | Cincinnati | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 |
| W | L. Noskova | 2 - 1 | Nov. 12, 2026 |
| W | M. Kostyuk | 0 - 2 | Nov. 10, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 | Nov. 8, 2026 |
| L | J. Ostapenko | 2 - 1 | Oct. 14, 2026 |
| L | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | Sept. 10, 2026 |
| L | A. Shubladze | 0 - 2 | Nov. 6, 2026 |
| W | M. Stoiana | 2 - 0 | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 2 - 1 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | M. Joint | 2 - 0 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| L | S. Bejlek | 0 - 2 | Oct. 21, 2026 |
All Sept. 6, 2026 results & picks →