TennisEdge's AI bot is backing S. Cirstea +3.5 (game handicap) at 2.26 in J. Pegula vs S. Cirstea (US Open on 2026-09-06). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Pegula | S. Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
67.8% | 32.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
62.5% | 37.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
55.6% | 44.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
64.7% | 35.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
71.9% | 28.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Pegula | hard | 2093 | 204–77 | 281 |
| S. Cirstea | hard | 1926 | 99–66 | 165 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 10, 2026.
J. Pegula leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 6, 2026 | US Open | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 19, 2026 | Cincinnati | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | Sept. 10, 2026 |
| W | E. Navarro | 2 - 1 | Sept. 9, 2026 |
| W | S. Cirstea | 2 - 0 | Sept. 6, 2026 |
| W | L. Fernandez | 2 - 1 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
| W | S. Kenin | 2 - 0 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | Sept. 6, 2026 |
| W | J. Paolini | 0 - 2 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
| W | D. Parry | 0 - 2 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| W | J. Grabher | 0 - 2 | Aug. 31, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 1 - 2 | Aug. 19, 2026 |
All Sept. 6, 2026 results & picks →