TennisEdge's AI bot is backing M. Bassols (moneyline) in Xiy. Wang vs M. Bassols (Wimbledon on 2026-06-24).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Xiy. Wang | M. Bassols |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
56.9% | 43.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
60.0% | 40.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
58.4% | 41.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
69.8% | 30.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xiy. Wang | hard | 1677 | 92–80 | 172 |
| M. Bassols | hard | 1563 | 105–80 | 185 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
M. Bassols leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 24, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Bassols | 1 - 1 |
| L | S. Bejlek | 1 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | C. McNally | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Bassols | 1 - 1 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | H. Guo | 2 - 0 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 0 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
| L | V. Jimenez Kasintseva | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | D. Vidmanova | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | S. Kraus | 1 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | M. L. Carle | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | A. Rus | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
All June 24, 2026 results & picks →
The model consensus identifies a significant 7.9% value edge on M. Bassols (38.1% prob vs. 30.2% devigged market price). This mathematical edge is strongly supported by qualitative factors: Wang is exhibiting extreme scheduling congestion, having played a clay court final on June 21 before immediately switching surfaces to grass on June 23, resulting in 6 matches in 14 days. Conversely, Bassols has played only one match in the last two weeks and is well-rested. The market appears to be chasing Wang's reputation and recent win rate while ignoring the physical toll of the surface transition and heavy workload.