TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Hontama vs A. Urhobo (Wimbledon on 2026-06-24) — the market is efficient, with A. Urhobo favoured at 1.48.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Hontama | A. Urhobo |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
41.0% | 59.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
43.2% | 56.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
41.1% | 58.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
38.6% | 61.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Hontama | hard | 1597 | 153–123 | 276 |
| A. Urhobo | clay | 1635 | 73–31 | 104 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
M. Hontama leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 23, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Hontama | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Inglis | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | H. Sakatsume | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | J. Lu | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | K. Day | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | L. Tagger | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| L | M. Hontama | 2 - 0 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | C. Naef | 2 - 0 | June 12, 2026 |
| W | M. Sawangkaew | 0 - 2 | June 8, 2026 |
| W | R. Sramkova | 1 - 2 | June 4, 2026 |
| L | D. Semenistaja | 0 - 2 | June 4, 2026 |
All June 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used