TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Cirstea vs M. Joint (Toronto on 2026-08-06) — the market is efficient, with S. Cirstea favoured at 1.20.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Cirstea | M. Joint |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
75.1% | 24.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
62.0% | 38.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
68.6% | 31.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
75.1% | 24.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
73.6% | 26.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Cirstea | hard | 1917 | 94–63 | 157 |
| M. Joint | hard | 1725 | 84–53 | 137 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 23, 2026.
S. Cirstea leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 6, 2025 | Indian Wells | hard | S. Cirstea | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Noskova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Birrell | 2 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | S. Bejlek | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Raducanu | 0 - 2 | June 12, 2026 |
| W | M. Inglis | 2 - 1 | June 9, 2026 |
| W | Y. Starodubtseva | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Grubor | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | K. Liutova | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | W. Osuigwe | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | T. Valentova | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
All Aug. 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used