TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in P. Udvardy vs N. Osaka (Toronto on 2026-08-06) — the market is efficient, with N. Osaka favoured at 1.06.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | P. Udvardy | N. Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
13.6% | 86.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
15.0% | 85.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
25.7% | 74.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
17.5% | 82.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
15.7% | 84.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Udvardy | clay | 1702 | 179–102 | 281 |
| N. Osaka | hard | 1920 | 80–36 | 116 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 23, 2026.
| W | E. Lys | 1 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | E. Pridankina | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | K. Kawa | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Krueger | 0 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | K. Muchova | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | A. Sabalenka | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
All Aug. 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used