TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Pegula vs M. Frech (Toronto on 2026-08-06) — the market is efficient, with J. Pegula favoured at 1.15.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Pegula | M. Frech |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
87.1% | 12.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
87.0% | 13.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
75.2% | 24.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
82.1% | 17.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
80.3% | 19.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
J. Pegula leads 4–0 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 30, 2026 | Washington | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 |
| April 17, 2025 | Stuttgart | clay | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| April 28, 2023 | WTA Madrid | clay | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 27, 2021 | Chicago 2 | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Eala | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Frech | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | L. Jeanjean | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Li | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 | June 22, 2026 |
All Aug. 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used