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K. Day vs C. Gauff — Prediction & Analysis

Toronto · WTA Toronto - 1/32-finals · Aug. 6, 2026 · 14:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Day vs C. Gauff (Toronto on 2026-08-06) — the market is efficient, with C. Gauff favoured at 1.06.

Surface hard Odds K. Day 6.40 · C. Gauff 1.06

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: K. Day · C. Gauff · head-to-head record · Toronto

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method K. Day C. Gauff
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
11.9% 88.1%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
8.0% 92.0%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
68.1% 31.9%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
25.4% 74.6%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
14.2% 85.8%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
K. Day hard1698 120–84204
C. Gauff hard2045 155–60215

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.

Recent form

K. Day

W D. Parry 1 - 2 Aug. 3, 2026
W H. Guo 0 - 2 Aug. 1, 2026
L M. Hontama 1 - 2 July 28, 2026
L M. Keys 1 - 2 June 30, 2026
W K. Kawa 0 - 2 June 25, 2026

C. Gauff

L K. Muchova 2 - 1 July 9, 2026
W J. Pegula 1 - 2 July 7, 2026
W B. Bencic 1 - 2 July 5, 2026
W C. Liu 1 - 2 July 3, 2026
W S. Sierra 1 - 2 July 1, 2026

All Aug. 6, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used