TennisEdge's AI bot is backing T. Kostovic (moneyline) in R. Sramkova vs T. Kostovic (Wimbledon on 2026-06-24).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Sramkova | T. Kostovic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
34.2% | 65.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
53.7% | 46.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
44.0% | 56.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
53.6% | 46.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Sramkova | hard | 1703 | 89–75 | 164 |
| T. Kostovic | clay | 1583 | 52–32 | 84 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
T. Kostovic leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 24, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | T. Kostovic | 2 - 1 |
| W | A. Blinkova | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | M. Sawangkaew | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | J. Tjen | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | G. Knutson | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | C. Ansari | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | M. Kubka | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | V. Wolff | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | A. Siskova | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Pastikova | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | K. Supova | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
All June 24, 2026 results & picks →
The model consensus identifies a 6.2% edge on T. Kostovic, primarily driven by the ELO model's assessment of her as a 'Strong Specialist' on grass compared to Sramkova's moderate profile. Qualitative analysis strongly supports this: Sramkova spent 2h 49m on court yesterday versus just 54 minutes for Kostovic, creating a significant fatigue mismatch for the favorite. While the ML model leans slightly toward Sramkova, the market appears to be chasing Sramkova's recent form, ignoring the structural fatigue and surface specialization advantages that justify backing the underdog.