TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Musetti vs F. Cerundolo (Rome on 2026-05-10) — the market is efficient, with L. Musetti favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Musetti | F. Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
41.9% | 58.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
39.7% | 60.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
68.0% | 32.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
49.9% | 50.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.0% | 45.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Musetti | hard | 1907 | 96–84 | 180 |
| F. Cerundolo | clay | 1861 | 125–69 | 194 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
Level at 2–2 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Rome | clay | L. Musetti | 2 - 0 |
| Nov. 21, 2024 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group | — | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 0 |
| July 27, 2024 | ATP Umag | clay | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 1 |
| July 23, 2022 | Hamburg | clay | L. Musetti | 2 - 0 |
| L | R. Jodar | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Vukic | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Arnaldi | 0 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | C. Ruud | 0 - 2 | May 12, 2026 |
| W | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | May 10, 2026 |
| L | A. Gea | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | T. Boyer | 0 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Miguel | 3 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | C. Norrie | 3 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 1 - 3 | July 17, 2026 |
All May 10, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used