TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Arnaldi vs R. Jodar (Rome on 2026-05-10) — the market is efficient, with R. Jodar favoured at 1.28.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Arnaldi | R. Jodar |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
57.0% | 43.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
57.4% | 42.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
25.3% | 74.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
46.6% | 53.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
25.4% | 74.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Arnaldi | clay | 1861 | 133–70 | 203 |
| R. Jodar | hard | 1905 | 67–22 | 89 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 16, 2026.
R. Jodar leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Rome | clay | R. Jodar | 2 - 1 |
| L | L. Musetti | 0 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | D. Dzumhur | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | F. A. Gomez | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | G. Hussey | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Musetti | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | K. Nishikori | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Fils | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
All May 10, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used