TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Tien vs A. Bublik (Rome on 2026-05-10) — the market is efficient, with A. Bublik favoured at 1.50.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Tien | A. Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
26.2% | 73.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
29.1% | 70.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
27.6% | 72.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
27.6% | 72.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
36.4% | 63.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
L. Tien leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Geneva | clay | L. Tien | 2 - 1 |
| May 10, 2026 | Rome | clay | L. Tien | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Mannarino | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | D. Svrcina | 1 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 0 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | G. Mpetshi Perricard | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | A. Molcan | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | F. Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
All May 10, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used