TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in N. Osaka vs D. Shnaider (Rome on 2026-05-10) — the market is efficient, with D. Shnaider favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | N. Osaka | D. Shnaider |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
38.6% | 61.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
25.3% | 74.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
57.2% | 42.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
40.3% | 59.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
47.4% | 52.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Osaka | hard | 1920 | 80–36 | 116 |
| D. Shnaider | hard | 1841 | 98–62 | 160 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
N. Osaka leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Rome | clay | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Eala | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Krueger | 0 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | K. Muchova | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | A. Sabalenka | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | L. Samsonova | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Potapova | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 1 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | E. Lys | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
All May 10, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used