TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Samsonova vs A. Potapova (Rome on 2026-05-10) — the market is efficient, with A. Potapova favoured at 1.57.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Samsonova | A. Potapova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
19.7% | 80.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
17.5% | 82.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
48.0% | 52.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
28.4% | 71.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
39.8% | 60.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Samsonova | hard | 1750 | 30–32 | 62 |
| A. Potapova | hard | 1713 | 81–83 | 164 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
A. Potapova leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Rome | clay | A. Potapova | 2 - 0 |
| W | J. Tjen | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | Xin. Wang | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Keys | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| L | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | V. Williams | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Alexandrova | 1 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
| L | Z. Sonmez | 0 - 1 | June 11, 2026 |
All May 10, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used