Bet sheet archive · 11 September 2026
11 September 2026: 4 bets staked, settled 1W-3L. Every entry below was published before its match started.
The market has Clara Burel a heavy favourite here, and it is paying for her ranking history rather than her current level: she is world 746 today, her rating sits nearly 100 points below her 2024 peak, and she has not beaten a quality opponent in ninety days. Guillermina Maristany is ranked 189, is rising, and has already beaten two rated clay players at this event, including a 6-2 6-1 win over Bassols. Our rating books, which cover 251 and 293 matches with full opponent coverage, put the two far closer than a four-and-a-half game line implies. We are taking Maristany with the games start rather than outright, which wins whenever she keeps the match respectable.
G. Maristany won 2 - 1
Brancaccio +5.5 games at 1.67 on Pinnacle. Munar is the clear favourite but his clay rating sits well under his overall level and Brancaccio has already beaten a stronger opponent here this week; our model gives the cover about 64 percent against a market price near 60.
J. Munar won 2 - 1
Our rating model has this all-American semi-final close to a coin flip while the sharp books make Ben Shelton a heavy favourite, and the serve numbers say the books are closer to right: Shelton wins over 70 percent of points on serve, Tiafoe 65. So we are not backing Tiafoe to win. We are backing him to stay within four and a half games, a line where our own history of matches at this price gap says the underdog covers about 60 percent of the time against a price implying 54. Tiafoe has come through two long matches this week and beat Medvedev in straight sets, which is the form of a man who can hang around rather than get run over.
B. Shelton won 3 - 1
Jeanjean arrives in the semi-finals having beaten two of the strongest players in the draw this week, both times as the underdog on the board. Liu has looked sharper in her own matches but has faced a noticeably weaker set of opponents, and she lost twice as favourite in the weeks before this event. The market has not moved at all since we first looked, and it is still pricing Jeanjean a little cheaper than her run here justifies. We back her at the exchange price.
C. Liu won 2 - 0
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Every pick is published before its match starts and graded in public — wins and losses both stay on the record. 18+. Bet responsibly.