TennisEdge's AI bot is backing F. Tiafoe +4.5 (game handicap) at 1.85 in F. Tiafoe vs B. Shelton (US Open on 2026-09-11). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Tiafoe | B. Shelton |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
45.8% | 54.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
37.4% | 62.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
32.9% | 67.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
38.7% | 61.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
27.8% | 72.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Tiafoe | hard | 1908 | 140–93 | 233 |
| B. Shelton | hard | 2016 | 162–73 | 235 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 4, 2026.
B. Shelton leads 4–1 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 11, 2026 | US Open | hard | B. Shelton | 3 - 1 |
| July 26, 2025 | Washington | hard | B. Shelton | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 30, 2024 | ATP US Open | hard | F. Tiafoe | 3 - 2 |
| April 7, 2024 | ATP Houston | clay | B. Shelton | 2 - 1 |
| Sept. 6, 2023 | ATP US Open | hard | B. Shelton | 3 - 1 |
| L | Q. Halys | 2 - 1 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| L | L. Musetti | 2 - 0 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 1 | Oct. 11, 2026 |
| W | Y. Hanfmann | 0 - 2 | Oct. 9, 2026 |
| L | A. Fils | 2 - 0 | Oct. 2, 2026 |
| L | C. Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | Nov. 8, 2026 |
| W | L. van Assche | 1 - 2 | Nov. 7, 2026 |
| W | T. Paul | 2 - 1 | Nov. 6, 2026 |
| W | A. Rinderknech | 2 - 1 | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | C. Norrie | 2 - 0 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
All Sept. 11, 2026 results & picks →