Bet sheet archive · 10 September 2026
10 September 2026: 3 bets staked, settled 0W-3L. Every entry below was published before its match started.
Jacquemot is the higher-ranked player but her results have outrun her rating: she has won only over sub-1500 opposition in the last three months, sits 165 points below her peak and is 2-11 on hard this season. Tikhonova's overall rating is held down by clay she does not play well, while on hard she rates far closer, and she has already beaten two roughly 1590-rated opponents on this court this week as a heavy outsider. Measured hard-court serve and return numbers have the two of them essentially level. At 3.50 the market is paying too much for the ranking gap.
E. Jacquemot won 2 - 1
Nadia Podoroska is a big price here at a WTA 125 in Barranquilla, and the ranking gap between her and Anna Blinkova overstates the gap on a hard court, where our ratings have the pair almost level. Blinkova is the better player against tour-level fields and has beaten several higher-rated opponents in the last month, so we are not backing an outright upset. What we do think is that this stays closer than the market's three-and-a-half game line, with Podoroska's serve holding up against a Blinkova delivery that has run below tour average all season. We are taking Podoroska with a three-and-a-half game start.
A. Blinkova won 2 - 0
Jessica Pegula arrives in this semi-final on the better recent evidence: she has won nine of her last ten, came through Cincinnati past Swiatek and Anisimova, and is playing at the highest level our rating has ever given her. Aryna Sabalenka is still the rightful favourite on hard courts and leads the head-to-head 6-2 on the surface, but her rating has drifted down all summer, she has no win over a top-tier opponent in three months, and she needed two tiebreaks to survive her quarter-final. The market has priced Sabalenka a little above where our models land, so the exchange price on Pegula is worth a small play. This is a modest edge, not a strong opinion.
A. Sabalenka won 2 - 0
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