TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Blinkova (moneyline) in Y. Starodubtseva vs A. Blinkova (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Y. Starodubtseva | A. Blinkova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
41.9% | 58.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
72.5% | 27.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
31.1% | 68.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
41.9% | 58.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
62.0% | 38.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Starodubtseva | hard | 1636 | 69–53 | 122 |
| A. Blinkova | hard | 1646 | 101–95 | 196 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
A. Blinkova leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Blinkova | 2 - 1 |
| May 24, 2026 | French Open | clay | Y. Starodubtseva | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 25, 2025 | US Open | hard | A. Blinkova | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Joint | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | S. Stephens | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Blinkova | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Zakharova | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | June 17, 2026 |
| L | R. Sramkova | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | H. Watson | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | S. Bejlek | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Sasnovich | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | A. Zantedeschi | 0 - 2 | July 10, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
MATCH: Y. Starodubtseva (A) vs A. Blinkova (B) — Wimbledon, grass, 1/64-finals MODELS: ELO p(A)=0.419 -> B fav 0.58 | ML p(A)=0.725 -> A strong fav | model(ELO)=0.419 | Market: A 1.53 (impl 0.62), B 2.50 (impl 0.38). Value pick B, edge +0.20. Models do NOT agree (ELO=B, ML=A). H2H: A beat B 6-3 6-1 (DOM) 5 weeks ago at French Open 1/64 — but on CLAY (A's surface). FORM A (clay grinder): grass 1-2 last 3 wks — L Zakharova(1675) 3set, L Navarro(1769) grind 3set, W Joint(1718) grind 3set. Strong on clay (beat Rybakina 1995, Madrid/Charleston finals, Paris SF) but poor grass adapter. FORM B (grass-comfortable): Nottingham TITLE (W Bondar, W Kasatkina 1697 6-3 6-2 DOM), London (W Vekic 1752, W Burrage), Bad Homburg FINAL (lost to Sierra 9d ago). Clearly the more proven grass performer this season; up-and-down (also L Raducanu, L Preston). FATIGUE: A matches14d=3, court 309min, last 06-23 (7d rest). B matches14d=5, court 401min, back-to-back grass cluster but last match 06-21 (9d rest). Court-time diff 92min > 60 nominally disadvantages B, but B has had a full week+ off so it is largely neutralized; both rested. NARRATIVE: B lost (not won) Bad Homburg final 9d ago -> no let-down peak. No title-recency boost. VERDICT: Grass surface flips the clay H2H. Market + ML lean A off the recent clay demolition and aggregate stats; ELO and the surface-specific live form back B. B's grass body of work (title + wins over Kasatkina/Vekic) outclasses A's lone grind win on grass. At 2.50 (38%) for a player whose true grass chance is ~50%, B is value. BET B, conservatively sized given the recent dominant H2H and the ML/market disagreement.