TennisEdge's AI bot is backing B. Harris (moneyline) in K. Khachanov vs B. Harris (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Khachanov | B. Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
58.1% | 41.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
55.3% | 44.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
68.8% | 31.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
66.0% | 34.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
78.0% | 22.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Khachanov | hard | 1781 | 120–84 | 204 |
| B. Harris | hard | 1556 | 157–115 | 272 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 30, 2026.
K. Khachanov leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | K. Khachanov | 3 - 1 |
| L | B. Tomic | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | Y. Hanfmann | 3 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | B. Harris | 3 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Damm | 0 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| L | A. Shelbayh | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | D. Suresh | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | K. Khachanov | 3 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | Y. Zhou | 1 - 3 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | Z. Piros | 0 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
MATCH: K. Khachanov (A) vs B. Harris (B) — Wimbledon, grass, 1/64-finals MODELS: ELO A 0.581 | ML A 0.553 | Serve/Return A 0.688 | Blended model A 0.660 | Market A 0.780 (1.22) / B 0.220 (4.33). Value pick B, edge +12.0%. Every model prices Khachanov BELOW the market — ML lands him near a coin-flip (0.553). Meaningful model-vs-market disagreement on the favorite. FORM: - Khachanov (A): clay-built results (Rome QF, beat Prizmic 1908 / Van de Zandschulp 1761) but GRASS form is poor — lost Halle 1/16 to E. Quinn (1481) 1-6,6-4,6-4 reversed and lost an exhibition to M. Damm. Zero grass wins in the window. Higher-class player overall, weakest surface here. - Harris (B): RED-HOT on grass at home. Just won a Wimbledon-labeled grass title (W Final vs Zhou 1646, DOM SF 6-4 6-4 vs Piros 1608, DOM QF 6-2 6-2 vs Napolitano 1518). Multiple grass wins this fortnight. Caveat: opposition quality Avg/Weak (1518-1646), not Strong/Elite — DOM edge is real but discounted. FATIGUE: A rested — 2 matches/14d, 174min court time, 6 days off. B heavily loaded — 6 matches/14d, 18 sets, 651min court time, 2 back-to-backs; but last match 5d ago gives recovery. Court-time gap 477min >60min → heavier side (Harris) carries the fatigue disadvantage, partly offset by 5 rest days. NARRATIVE: Let-down WEAK — Harris won a Final 5d ago. TITLE: grass title 5d ago. Venue momentum strongly Harris (3-0 at this event) — amplifies, does not create. VERDICT: BET B (value). The 1.22 favorite is overpriced: Khachanov's grass form is genuinely shaky (lost to a 1481 on grass) while Harris is a grass specialist in peak form on home soil. Models confirm the favorite is short. Tempered to 1.5u — Khachanov is the higher-class player, Harris beat only Avg opposition and carries a heavy workload + mild let-down. Model still forecasts Khachanov as match-winner; the bet is on the underdog price, not the outright.