TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Boisson vs E. Rybakina (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with E. Rybakina favoured at 1.03.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Boisson | E. Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
9.3% | 90.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
19.4% | 80.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
12.2% | 87.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
6.4% | 93.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Boisson | clay | 1739 | 82–39 | 121 |
| E. Rybakina | hard | 2149 | 174–69 | 243 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 26, 2026.
E. Rybakina leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | E. Rybakina | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Ruzic | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | E. Arango | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | E. Rybakina | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | S. Sierra | 1 - 2 | June 10, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 0 | May 26, 2026 |
| L | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | C. McNally | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Boisson | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 2 - 0 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | T. Maria | 2 - 1 | June 12, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
MATCH: L. Boisson (A) vs E. Rybakina (B) — Wimbledon 1/64-finals, grass. MODELS: ELO_A 9.3% | ML_A 19.4% | model_A 12.2% (model_B 87.8%). Market: A 6.4% / B 93.6% (odds A 15.0, B 1.03). value_pick=A, edge +5.8% (model over market on the longshot). FORM — BOISSON (A): 1-6 in last 7. Only win = GRIND vs Avg (Xin Wang 1616, 6-3 7-6). Lost her ONLY grass match this year (Hertogenbosch 1/16 to Sierra 1611, 4-6 7-5 3-6). Crushed on clay repeatedly (2-6 2-6 Kalinskaya, 2-6 3-6 Siniakova, 1-6 3-6 Stearns). Clay specialist in collapse. FORM — RYBAKINA (B): former Wimbledon champion, elite on grass. Grass this year: beat Maria 6-7 7-5 6-0, lost tight to Boulter & Eala. Won STUTTGART title (clay, 72d ago) — Andreeva 1987 SF, Muchova 1892 Final. DOM wins vs Sakkari/Pliskova in Rome. Vastly superior pedigree, especially on grass. FATIGUE: Boisson 0 matches/14d (last 20d ago) — rested. Rybakina 1 match/14d (~71min, 12d ago) — rested. Roughly equal, no edge. NARRATIVE: Rybakina last title Stuttgart 19-Apr (72d, clay) — no let-down spot. No Wimbledon venue history in window for either. VERDICT: PASS. The +5.8% model edge on Boisson is a statistical artifact, not a real edge. Qualitative read is the opposite of validating: a clay specialist in dire form (lost her only grass match to a 1611) against a former Wimbledon champion on grass. Backing A @15.0 is a longshot trap. No bet.