TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Sakkari vs C. Tauson (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with C. Tauson favoured at 1.61.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Sakkari | C. Tauson |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
42.3% | 57.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.5% | 50.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
44.7% | 55.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
41.2% | 58.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Sakkari | hard | 1846 | 109–78 | 187 |
| C. Tauson | hard | 1788 | 141–74 | 215 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 13, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Sakkari | 2 - 0 |
| April 12, 2024 | WTA Billie Jean King Cup - Group I | — | C. Tauson | 2 - 0 |
| L | B. Krejcikova | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Korneeva | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | A. Parks | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | H. Dart | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | P. Kudermetova | 0 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | E. Cocciaretto | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | B. Krejcikova | 1 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | S. Bejlek | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | M. Tona | 2 - 0 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | N. Hibino | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
M. Sakkari (A) vs C. Tauson (B) — Wimbledon, grass, 1/64-finals MODELS: ELO_A 0.423 | ML_A 0.495 | MODEL_A 0.447 | MARKET_A 0.412 (odds A 2.30 / B 1.61). Value pick A, edge +3.5% after shrinkage. ELO AGREES with market (both favor Tauson); only ML meaningfully diverges toward Sakkari. FORM — Sakkari (A): poor. Last 10 = 3W/7L. On GRASS 0-2: lost Nottingham 1/16 to Zheng (1690) in 3 tight sets, lost London to Maria (1760) 3-6 3-6. No win since French Open 1/32 (Liu, 28 May). Idle 15 days — rusty, not sharp-rested. Form — Tauson (B): better on grass. Reached Bad Homburg QF last week: beat Shnaider (1688) 6-4 6-4 and Zheng (1702) 5-7 6-4 6-2 (GRIND), lost QF to Muchova after taking set 1. Live grass form clearly ahead of Sakkari. FATIGUE: A court_time 106min / 1 match 14d (well rested, near rusty). B court_time 301min / 4 matches 14d, 3 in 4 days — heavy load, but 5 days rest into this match recovers most of it. Net: mild edge Sakkari, muted by her layoff. NARRATIVE: No let-down spot. No Wimbledon venue signal. No recent title for either. Live form (Tauson grass momentum) outweighs the thin ML edge on Sakkari. VERDICT: The lone source of value is ML 0.495 vs market 0.412, but ELO sides with the market and the qualitative read CONTRADICTS backing Sakkari — her grass form is 0-2 and she's been losing broadly, while Tauson is the in-form grass player. Fatigue edge for Sakkari is real but small and offset by 15-day rust. Unvalidated 3.5% edge at low confidence (0.08) = no play. PASS.