TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in B. Haddad Maia vs M. Timofeeva (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with M. Timofeeva favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | B. Haddad Maia | M. Timofeeva |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
70.3% | 29.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.5% | 50.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
50.9% | 49.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
31.8% | 68.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Haddad Maia | hard | 1575 | 109–86 | 195 |
| M. Timofeeva | hard | 1616 | 92–61 | 153 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated June 15, 2026.
M. Timofeeva leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Timofeeva | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 19, 2024 | WTA Australian Open | hard | M. Timofeeva | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Timofeeva | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | S. Vickery | 2 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
| L | H. Watson | 2 - 0 | June 7, 2026 |
| L | F. Jones | 2 - 1 | May 24, 2026 |
| L | S. Zhang | 0 - 2 | May 16, 2026 |
| L | S. Bejlek | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | A. Sasnovich | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Li | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | E. Mertens | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | B. Haddad Maia | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
B. Haddad Maia (A) vs M. Timofeeva (B) — Wimbledon 1/64-finals, grass, 2026-06-30 MODELS - ELO prob A: 0.703 (heavily favors Haddad Maia) - ML prob A: 0.495 (leans B, aligns with market) - Blend model prob A: 0.509 (coin flip, dragged up by ELO) - Market: A @3.00 (impl 31.8%) / B @1.40 (impl 68.2%) -> value pick A, edge +19.1% The entire model 'edge' on A is an ELO artifact. ELO still rates Haddad Maia as a former top player; her live form says otherwise. FORM — HADDAD MAIA (A): FREEFALL. ~3-9 last 90d. - 06-15 LOST qualifying to S. Vickery (1394, Weak) 5-7 5-7 — playing/losing qualies to a 1394 - 06-07 LOST H. Watson (1539) 5-7 0-6 (London SF, grass) - 05-24 LOST F. Jones (1708) RG R64; 05-16 LOST S. Zhang (1444) 4-6 2-6; 05-12 LOST Parry (1550) 3-6 2-6 - Only wins: clay vs Krueger/Lazaro Garcia/Jorge in April. No grass form, badly out of competition (15d idle). FORM — TIMOFEEVA (B): SURGING. Multi-title run. - 06-25 WON grass Final vs Watson 3-6 6-2 6-1 (GRIND); 06-24 W vs Podrez 6-4 6-2 (DOM); 06-23 W vs Osuigwe 6-1 6-4 - Early June WON Makarska (clay) title: beat Andreeva (1635), Sorribes Tormo (1733), Semenistaja (1727) - RG SF run; Istanbul Q title beating Vekic (1754) & Jones (1754); W75 Chiasso title. ELO underrates her because she farms ITF/W75 events while actually beating Strong/Elite opponents. FATIGUE - A: 1 match/14d, well-rested but rusty (last 06-15). - B: 4 matches/14d, ~12 sets, 253min, b2b 2 — heavy, BUT 5 days rest since the 06-25 Final. Recovered. Fatigue edge: heavier side (B) had recovery; not decisive. NARRATIVE - Let-down: B won a Final 5d ago -> WEAK let-down signal. Title recency: TITLE grass 5d ago — live form for B. - Venue momentum: B 3-0 at this grass venue this week. VERDICT: The bot's 'bet A 2.5u' is a classic stale-ELO trap. Qualitative read kills it: A is collapsing (lost qualies to a 1394), B is in red-hot multi-surface form and just won a grass title. Market (B 68%) is correctly priced if not slightly conservative. A WEAK let-down/heavy-schedule angle on B is the only thing pointing the other way, but A is too far gone to exploit it — she can't capitalize. No value on A; B @1.40 is too short to bet given the let-down/fatigue risk. PASS. Match winner: Timofeeva.