TennisEdge's AI bot is backing G. Mpetshi Perricard (moneyline) in Y. Hanfmann vs G. Mpetshi Perricard (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Y. Hanfmann | G. Mpetshi Perricard |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
30.3% | 69.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
58.9% | 41.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
48.6% | 51.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
30.3% | 69.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
41.2% | 58.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Hanfmann | clay | 1810 | 123–82 | 205 |
| G. Mpetshi Perricard | hard | 1695 | 83–72 | 155 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 24, 2026.
Y. Hanfmann leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | Y. Hanfmann | 3 - 1 |
| Sept. 20, 2024 | ATP Chengdu | hard | Y. Hanfmann | 2 - 1 |
| W | B. Bonzi | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | S. Baez | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | L. Neumayer | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | Y. Hanfmann | 3 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | R. Bautista-Agut | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| W | L. Tien | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | C. Moutet | 1 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
| W | A. Kovacevic | 0 - 2 | June 14, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
Wimbledon (grass) 1/64 — Y. Hanfmann (A) @2.30 vs G. Mpetshi Perricard (B) @1.61 MODELS: ELO A 0.303 (B 0.70) | ML A 0.589 | blended A 0.303 | serve/return A 0.486 | market implied A 0.412 / B 0.588. value_pick B, edge +0.109. Confidence LOW (0.08) — ELO and ML pull opposite directions. FORM A (Hanfmann, grass): L Darderi(1553) 5-7 3-6 (last, 06-23) | W Vallejo(1797) 7-6 7-6 GRIND vs Strong | L Zverev(1850) 3-6 6-7 | W Fonseca(1635) 6-2 6-2 DOM | L Bellucci 3-set | W Kovacevic(1432) 7-6 7-6 GRIND. Competent grass swing but fundamentally a clay grinder; just lost to a 1553 in Mallorca. FORM B (Mpetshi, grass): exhibitions W Bautista-Agut, W Tien (06-26/06-23) | L Moutet(1630) 7-6 4-6 6-7 | W Kovacevic London FINAL 6-3 6-4 (TITLE 06-14) | W Monday SF 6-4 6-3 | L Bublik 6-7 6-7 | W Onclin 7-6 6-2. Won London grass title 16d ago. Huge serve = grass weapon. FATIGUE: A 4 matches/14d, 324min; B 4 matches/14d, 400min. Both last competitive 06-23 → 7 days rest. Court-time diff 76min nominally vs B but negated by a week off. Roughly equal. NARRATIVE: Mpetshi TITLE London (grass) 06-14, 16d ago — outside let-down window, no fade flag. No Wimbledon history in window. Venue neutral. VERDICT: Grass rewards the big serve. Mpetshi rarely gets broken; Hanfmann's return won't dent him often, and Hanfmann is a clay-courter who just lost to a 1553. ELO (70%) and the surface/serve read both clear the 1.61 breakeven (62%). ML's lean to Hanfmann discounted as overrating his match count on a surface that flatters the server. Real but thin edge — BET B at trimmed stake given the ELO/ML conflict and low blended confidence.