TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in V. Podrez vs S. Stephens (Paris on 2026-05-12) — the market is efficient, with V. Podrez favoured at 1.50.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | V. Podrez | S. Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
54.9% | 45.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
63.7% | 36.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
47.2% | 52.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
55.3% | 44.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
62.5% | 37.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Podrez | hard | 1673 | 62–32 | 94 |
| S. Stephens | hard | 1620 | 53–68 | 121 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
V. Podrez leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Paris | clay | V. Podrez | 2 - 1 |
| April 13, 2026 | Rouen | clay | V. Podrez | 2 - 0 |
| W | E. Micic | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | C. Y. Lee | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| W | R. Saigo | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | T. Krejcova | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | A. Voloshchuk | 0 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | S. Sierra | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | H. Dart | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | D. Vidmanova | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | Y. Starodubtseva | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 2 - 1 | July 23, 2026 |
All May 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used