TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in B. Haddad Maia vs D. Parry (Paris on 2026-05-12) — the market is efficient, with B. Haddad Maia favoured at 1.66.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | B. Haddad Maia | D. Parry |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
57.3% | 42.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
72.9% | 27.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
55.4% | 44.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
61.8% | 38.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.9% | 44.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Haddad Maia | hard | 1575 | 109–86 | 195 |
| D. Parry | clay | 1663 | 105–71 | 176 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated June 15, 2026.
D. Parry leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Paris | clay | D. Parry | 2 - 0 |
| March 21, 2024 | WTA Miami | hard | B. Haddad Maia | 2 - 1 |
| Nov. 11, 2021 | W60+H Santiago | clay | D. Parry | 2 - 0 |
| Nov. 5, 2021 | Buenos Aires | clay | D. Parry | 2 - 1 |
| L | M. Timofeeva | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | S. Vickery | 2 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
| L | H. Watson | 2 - 0 | June 7, 2026 |
| L | F. Jones | 2 - 1 | May 24, 2026 |
| L | S. Zhang | 0 - 2 | May 16, 2026 |
| L | K. Day | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | M. Hontama | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | F. Jones | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | I. Begu | 0 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
All May 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used