TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Preston vs Y. Starodubtseva (Paris on 2026-05-12) — the market is efficient, with Y. Starodubtseva favoured at 1.30.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Preston | Y. Starodubtseva |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
32.5% | 67.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
31.9% | 68.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
32.2% | 67.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
27.7% | 72.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Preston | hard | 1773 | 139–62 | 201 |
| Y. Starodubtseva | hard | 1636 | 69–53 | 122 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
T. Preston leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Paris | clay | Y. Starodubtseva | 2 - 0 |
| Nov. 28, 2025 | W75 Playford | hard | T. Preston | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 23, 2024 | Puerto Vallarta Challenger Women | hard | T. Preston | 2 - 0 |
| W | M. Inglis | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | P. Hon | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | H. Dart | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | H. Kaji | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | M. Joint | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | S. Stephens | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Blinkova | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Zakharova | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | June 17, 2026 |
All May 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used