TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Birrell vs K. Boulter (Paris on 2026-05-12) — the market is efficient, with K. Boulter favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Birrell | K. Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
36.4% | 63.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
26.6% | 73.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
31.5% | 68.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
33.7% | 66.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Birrell | hard | 1773 | 149–98 | 247 |
| K. Boulter | hard | 1758 | 102–70 | 172 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
K. Boulter leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Paris | clay | K. Boulter | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 19, 2025 | Tokyo | hard | K. Boulter | 2 - 1 |
| L | V. Golubic | 0 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | Y. Ma | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | S. Cirstea | 2 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | A. Korneeva | 2 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | P. Marcinko | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
| L | K. Cross | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | A. Krueger | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | T. C. Grant | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Fernandez | 1 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
| L | D. Vekic | 0 - 2 | June 13, 2026 |
All May 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used