TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Bejlek vs A. Charaeva (Paris on 2026-05-12) — the market is efficient, with S. Bejlek favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Bejlek | A. Charaeva |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
62.1% | 37.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
73.3% | 26.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
45.3% | 54.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
60.2% | 39.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
68.8% | 31.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bejlek | clay | 1747 | 137–58 | 195 |
| A. Charaeva | hard | 1610 | 75–54 | 129 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 24, 2026.
A. Charaeva leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Paris | clay | A. Charaeva | 2 - 0 |
| W | Xiy. Wang | 1 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | L. Tagger | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | A. Blinkova | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | C. Tauson | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| L | A. Bondar | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | S. Kraus | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | S. Sorribes Tormo | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | Y. Putintseva | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | V. Jimenez Kasintseva | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
All May 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used