TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Blinkova vs L. Fernandez (Paris on 2026-05-12) — the market is efficient, with L. Fernandez favoured at 1.26.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Blinkova | L. Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
49.1% | 50.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
50.5% | 49.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
62.2% | 37.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
54.0% | 46.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
26.6% | 73.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Blinkova | hard | 1646 | 101–95 | 196 |
| L. Fernandez | hard | 1804 | 119–82 | 201 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
A. Blinkova leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Paris | clay | A. Blinkova | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 14, 2023 | WTA Hong Kong | hard | L. Fernandez | 2 - 0 |
| June 28, 2023 | WTA Bad Homburg | grass | A. Blinkova | 2 - 0 |
| L | R. Sramkova | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | H. Watson | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | S. Bejlek | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Sasnovich | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | A. Zantedeschi | 0 - 2 | July 10, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Linette | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | J. Tjen | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | Xin. Wang | 2 - 0 | June 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Boulter | 1 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
All May 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used