TennisEdge's AI bot is backing Ka. Pliskova (moneyline) in T. Valentova vs Ka. Pliskova (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Valentova | Ka. Pliskova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
32.8% | 67.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
34.5% | 65.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
37.8% | 62.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
47.4% | 52.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Valentova | hard | 1814 | 74–23 | 97 |
| Ka. Pliskova | hard | 1747 | 77–47 | 124 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
Ka. Pliskova leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | Ka. Pliskova | 2 - 0 |
| L | T. Townsend | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | D. Snigur | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | M. Bouzkova | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | M. Joint | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | P. Hon | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| W | O. Oliynykova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | I. Swiatek | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Valentova | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 0 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| W | T. Gibson | 2 - 0 | June 19, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
T. Valentova (A) vs Ka. Pliskova (B) | Wimbledon | grass | 1/64-finals MODELS ELO p(A)=0.328 ML p(A)=0.345 Model p(A)=0.378 -> all favor B (Pliskova ~62%) Market: A 2.00 / B 1.80, devig p(B)=0.526. Value pick B, edge +9.6%. Both models AND market favor B; models price B ~10pts higher than market -> genuine value on B. FORM Valentova (grass, last 2wk): reached Eastbourne QF. W vs Tomljanovic 1767 (6-2 5-7 6-4, GRIND), W vs Klugman 1551 (7-5 5-7 7-5, GRIND), L vs Maria 1793 (3-6 5-7), L vs Bouzkova 1613 (3-6 3-6, DOM loss). Wins are all 3-set grinds; young clay-specialist (Saint Malo clay finalist) adapting to grass. Pliskova (grass): Nottingham SF (L vs Bouzkova 4-6 1-6 DOM loss), W Gibson 1584 (7-5 6-4), W McNally 1764 (6-4 7-6 GRIND vs Strong), W Bejlek; earlier Queen's/London QF. Big serve, ex-#1, grass-native game. FATIGUE Valentova: 3 matches/7d, ~337 court min, 12 sets, last match 5d ago (Jun25) - heavy grinding load. Pliskova: 1 match/7d, ~292 court min, last match 10d ago (Jun20) - well rested. Edge: Pliskova fresher (10d vs 5d rest, lighter recent load). NARRATIVE Let-down: none recent (Valentova last Final = Saint Malo clay, 58d ago, lost). Title recency: none. Venue: first Wimbledon meeting in dataset; grass amplifies Pliskova's serve edge. VERDICT: BET B (Pliskova). Rested big-serving grass-native vs fatigued young clay-specialist who only grinds out wins. Model edge +9.6% validated by surface fit + freshness. Tempered sizing for Pliskova's volatility (bad recent Bouzkova loss, aging/inconsistent).