TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Townsend vs I. Jovic (Rome on 2026-05-09) — the market is efficient, with I. Jovic favoured at 1.66.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Townsend | I. Jovic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
54.2% | 45.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
67.3% | 32.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
60.7% | 39.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
60.7% | 39.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
43.0% | 57.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Townsend | hard | 1840 | 79–48 | 127 |
| I. Jovic | hard | 1850 | 69–32 | 101 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Rome | clay | I. Jovic | 2 - 0 |
| March 5, 2024 | WTA Indian Wells | hard | T. Townsend | 2 - 0 |
| W | T. Valentova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | I. Swiatek | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | G. Ruse | 2 - 1 | June 21, 2026 |
| W | M. Trevisan | 0 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 2 - 0 | May 26, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | E. Alexandrova | 1 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | J. Cristian | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Raducanu | 2 - 0 | June 13, 2026 |
All May 9, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used