TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. M. Etcheverry vs M. Bellucci (Rome on 2026-05-09) — the market is efficient, with T. M. Etcheverry favoured at 1.33.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. M. Etcheverry | M. Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
72.7% | 27.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
86.2% | 13.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
80.5% | 19.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
79.8% | 20.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
71.9% | 28.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. M. Etcheverry | clay | 1796 | 187–98 | 285 |
| M. Bellucci | hard | 1722 | 152–98 | 250 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 24, 2026.
M. Bellucci leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Rome | clay | M. Bellucci | 2 - 1 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Bublik | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | I. Buse | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | J. Rodionov | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | D. Merida Aguilar | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | C. Ugo Carabelli | 1 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | U. Humbert | 2 - 1 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | R. Collignon | 2 - 1 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | A. Bublik | 2 - 0 | June 16, 2026 |
| W | A. Bolt | 2 - 1 | June 14, 2026 |
All May 9, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used