TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Cilic vs V. Vacherot (Rome on 2026-05-09) — the market is efficient, with V. Vacherot favoured at 1.46.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Cilic | V. Vacherot |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
36.1% | 63.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
21.8% | 78.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
42.0% | 58.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
33.3% | 66.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
35.1% | 64.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Cilic | hard | 1813 | 64–52 | 116 |
| V. Vacherot | clay | 1749 | 111–62 | 173 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
| W | S. Shimabukuro | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | D. Medvedev | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | U. Humbert | 2 - 0 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | D. Medvedev | 2 - 1 | June 13, 2026 |
| W | N. Borges | 1 - 2 | June 12, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | R. Collignon | 2 - 1 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | Y. Hanfmann | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | T. Faurel | 1 - 3 | May 26, 2026 |
| L | E. Nava | 2 - 1 | April 24, 2026 |
All May 9, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used