TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in B. Bencic vs A. Kalinskaya (Rome on 2026-05-09) — the market is efficient, with B. Bencic favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | B. Bencic | A. Kalinskaya |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
61.7% | 38.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
71.5% | 28.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
50.8% | 49.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
61.4% | 38.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
70.2% | 29.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Bencic | hard | 1998 | 116–52 | 168 |
| A. Kalinskaya | hard | 1880 | 126–78 | 204 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 25, 2026.
B. Bencic leads 5–1 over 6 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 3, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | B. Bencic | 2 - 1 |
| May 9, 2026 | Rome | clay | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 7, 2025 | Adelaide | hard | B. Bencic | 1 - 0 |
| Jan. 11, 2023 | Adelaide 2 | hard | B. Bencic | 2 - 0 |
| June 16, 2022 | Berlin | grass | B. Bencic | 2 - 1 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | Xin. Wang | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Stojsavljevic | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Svitolina | 2 - 1 | May 31, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | J. Tjen | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | D. Kasatkina | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | B. Bencic | 2 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Parry | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
All May 9, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used