TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in N. Basilashvili vs B. Shelton (Rome on 2026-05-09) — the market is efficient, with B. Shelton favoured at 1.30.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | N. Basilashvili | B. Shelton |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
47.4% | 52.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
28.1% | 71.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
40.8% | 59.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
38.8% | 61.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
27.1% | 72.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Basilashvili | hard | 1638 | 77–89 | 166 |
| B. Shelton | hard | 1936 | 144–68 | 212 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 19, 2026.
N. Basilashvili leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Rome | clay | N. Basilashvili | 2 - 1 |
| L | M. Poljicak | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Vrbensky | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | T. Torres | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | T. A. Tirante | 1 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | J. Choinski | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | U. Humbert | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | M. Damm | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | O. Virtanen | 3 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | C. Ruud | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
All May 9, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used