TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Popyrin vs J. Mensik (Rome on 2026-05-09) — the market is efficient, with J. Mensik favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Popyrin | J. Mensik |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
38.7% | 61.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
25.2% | 74.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
30.1% | 69.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
31.3% | 68.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
31.8% | 68.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Popyrin | hard | 1665 | 84–96 | 180 |
| J. Mensik | hard | 1898 | 117–56 | 173 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
J. Mensik leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Rome | clay | A. Popyrin | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 25, 2026 | Dubai | hard | J. Mensik | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 21, 2024 | ATP Vienna | hard | J. Mensik | 2 - 0 |
| July 22, 2024 | ATP Umag | clay | J. Mensik | 2 - 0 |
| W | T. Kokkinakis | 1 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Andrade | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Lehecka | 3 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | J. Choinski | 2 - 1 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | R. Collignon | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | T. Svajda | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | G. Dimitrov | 1 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Samuel | 3 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 1 | June 25, 2026 |
All May 9, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used