TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Paul vs L. Darderi (Rome on 2026-05-10) — the market is efficient, with T. Paul favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Paul | L. Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
27.9% | 72.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
23.8% | 76.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
34.3% | 65.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
28.7% | 71.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
52.6% | 47.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Paul | hard | 1894 | 154–80 | 234 |
| L. Darderi | clay | 1922 | 193–101 | 294 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
T. Paul leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Rome | clay | L. Darderi | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 7, 2024 | Montreal | hard | T. Paul | 2 - 0 |
| July 28, 2024 | Olympic Games | clay | T. Paul | 2 - 0 |
| L | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | H. Hurkacz | 3 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | S. Kwon | 0 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Muller | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | D. Svrcina | 0 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Blockx | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Faria | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | P. Martinez | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
All May 10, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used