TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Maria vs S. Cirstea (Rome on 2026-05-07) — the market is efficient, with S. Cirstea favoured at 1.12.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Maria | S. Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
35.5% | 64.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
19.7% | 80.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
23.3% | 76.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
26.1% | 73.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
15.3% | 84.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Maria | hard | 1566 | 112–109 | 221 |
| S. Cirstea | hard | 1917 | 94–63 | 157 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
S. Cirstea leads 4–1 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Rome | clay | S. Cirstea | 2 - 0 |
| March 4, 2026 | WTA Indian Wells | hard | S. Cirstea | 2 - 1 |
| July 5, 2023 | WTA Wimbledon | grass | S. Cirstea | 2 - 1 |
| June 29, 2022 | Wimbledon | grass | T. Maria | 2 - 1 |
| May 22, 2022 | French Open | clay | S. Cirstea | 2 - 0 |
| L | C. McNally | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | I. Marton | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | T. Gibson | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | K. Volynets | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Birrell | 2 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | S. Bejlek | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Raducanu | 0 - 2 | June 12, 2026 |
| W | M. Inglis | 2 - 1 | June 9, 2026 |
All May 7, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used