TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Pegula vs Z. Sonmez (Rome on 2026-05-07) — the market is efficient, with J. Pegula favoured at 1.21.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Pegula | Z. Sonmez |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
60.9% | 39.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
74.6% | 25.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
51.0% | 49.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
62.2% | 37.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
78.8% | 21.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
J. Pegula leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Rome | clay | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Eala | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Frech | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
All May 7, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used