TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Rublev vs M. Kecmanovic (Rome on 2026-05-09) — the market is efficient, with A. Rublev favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Rublev | M. Kecmanovic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
69.5% | 30.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
73.3% | 26.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
71.4% | 28.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
68.2% | 31.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Rublev | hard | 1854 | 163–90 | 253 |
| M. Kecmanovic | hard | 1734 | 98–98 | 196 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated April 4, 2026.
A. Rublev leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Rome | clay | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 |
| March 26, 2023 | ATP Miami | hard | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. van Assche | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | T. Skatov | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | S. Baez | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | M. Zheng | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | S. Baez | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | J. M. Cerundolo | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | K. Feldbausch | 1 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Sinner | 3 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
All May 9, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used