TennisEdge's AI bot is backing M. Bouzkova (moneyline) in T. Gibson vs M. Bouzkova (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Gibson | M. Bouzkova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
22.5% | 77.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
55.2% | 44.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
28.8% | 71.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
22.5% | 77.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
29.8% | 70.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Gibson | hard | 1825 | 179–94 | 273 |
| M. Bouzkova | hard | 1747 | 128–86 | 214 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
M. Bouzkova leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Bouzkova | 2 - 1 |
| Dec. 29, 2024 | Brisbane | hard | M. Bouzkova | 2 - 1 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Keys | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | Ka. Pliskova | 2 - 0 | June 19, 2026 |
| L | T. Valentova | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | C. Y. Lee | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | E. Mertens | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | L. Samsonova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
=== T. Gibson vs M. Bouzkova — Wimbledon (grass) 1/64 === MODELS - ELO P(A)=0.225 -> Bouzkova heavy fav - ML P(A)=0.552 -> outlier, leans Gibson - Market P(A)=0.298 (3.20 / 1.36) -> Bouzkova fav - Value model: pick B, edge +7.3% FORM (grass, recent-first) Gibson: L Keys(1808) 4-6 4-6 | L Pliskova(1732) 5-7 4-6 | W Zheng(1716) 6-3 7-6 [GRIND vs Strong] | W Jones(1428) 6-3 5-7 7-6 [GRIND]. Solid Nottingham QF run, one tier below elite. Bouzkova: W Navarro(1827) 7-6 4-6 6-2 [Nottingham FINAL/TITLE] | W Pliskova(1749) 6-4 6-1 [DOM] | W Maria(1783) 7-5 6-0 | W Klugman 7-5 6-2 | W Valentova 6-3 6-3 [DOM]. Peak grass form. COMMON-OPPONENT PROXY (grass, last week) Pliskova: Gibson LOST 5-7 4-6 vs Bouzkova WON 6-4 6-1. Clear edge Bouzkova. FATIGUE Bouzkova last match 06-21 (9d rest); Gibson 06-23 (7d). Both reset, roughly equal. No let-down: title 9d ago is outside 5-7d window. NARRATIVE TITLE: Nottingham 9d ago (grass) — live grass form confirms, doesn't fatigue. Venue: first Wimbledon match in window for both. VERDICT ELO + market + H2H proxy + title-level grass form all align on Bouzkova. ML's Gibson lean is unvalidated and likely a calibration artifact. Value model gives B +7.3%. Backing Bouzkova at 1.36, modest stake given short price.